Persistent above-target inflation and resilient U.S. economic data have pushed market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 87.5 percent. Stronger-than-expected August core CPI and nonfarm payrolls reports, showing 162,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 56,000, have shifted futures pricing toward at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned more hawkish, with the median dot plot projecting a higher federal funds rate path. Traders now assign over 85 percent probability to a September 16 hike, focusing on the upcoming meeting and incoming inflation and labor data as key catalysts that could confirm or adjust the tightening trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение ставки ФРС в 2026 году?
Повышение ставки ФРС в 2026 году?
Да
88% вероятность
$9,198,512 Объем
$9,198,512 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
Да
88% вероятность
$9,198,512 Объем
$9,198,512 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation and resilient U.S. economic data have pushed market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 87.5 percent. Stronger-than-expected August core CPI and nonfarm payrolls reports, showing 162,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 56,000, have shifted futures pricing toward at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned more hawkish, with the median dot plot projecting a higher federal funds rate path. Traders now assign over 85 percent probability to a September 16 hike, focusing on the upcoming meeting and incoming inflation and labor data as key catalysts that could confirm or adjust the tightening trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$9,198,512Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation and resilient U.S. economic data have pushed market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 87.5 percent. Stronger-than-expected August core CPI and nonfarm payrolls reports, showing 162,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 56,000, have shifted futures pricing toward at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned more hawkish, with the median dot plot projecting a higher federal funds rate path. Traders now assign over 85 percent probability to a September 16 hike, focusing on the upcoming meeting and incoming inflation and labor data as key catalysts that could confirm or adjust the tightening trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,198,512Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation and resilient U.S. economic data have pushed market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 87.5 percent. Stronger-than-expected August core CPI and nonfarm payrolls reports, showing 162,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 56,000, have shifted futures pricing toward at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned more hawkish, with the median dot plot projecting a higher federal funds rate path. Traders now assign over 85 percent probability to a September 16 hike, focusing on the upcoming meeting and incoming inflation and labor data as key catalysts that could confirm or adjust the tightening trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы