The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.83% as of early September 2026, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky core inflation readings above target, and elevated term premium amid fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply. Recent Jackson Hole remarks and geopolitical tensions linked to Iran have boosted oil prices and market-implied odds of near-term rate hikes, lifting real yields and forward rate expectations. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and PPI releases, and labor market data for signals on whether the Fed will hold or tighten further versus any easing path. Persistent inflation, growth resilience, and debt dynamics continue to anchor the longer end of the curve.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
Насколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
$336,194 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
5,0%
71%
5,2%
26%
5,5%
13%
5,7%
7%
6,0%
3%
$336,194 Объем
5,0%
$95,090 Объем
71%
5,2%
$35,202 Объем
26%
5,5%
$11,586 Объем
13%
5,7%
$4,686 Объем
7%
6,0%
$7,486 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.83% as of early September 2026, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky core inflation readings above target, and elevated term premium amid fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply. Recent Jackson Hole remarks and geopolitical tensions linked to Iran have boosted oil prices and market-implied odds of near-term rate hikes, lifting real yields and forward rate expectations. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and PPI releases, and labor market data for signals on whether the Fed will hold or tighten further versus any easing path. Persistent inflation, growth resilience, and debt dynamics continue to anchor the longer end of the curve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$336,194Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.83% as of early September 2026, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky core inflation readings above target, and elevated term premium amid fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply. Recent Jackson Hole remarks and geopolitical tensions linked to Iran have boosted oil prices and market-implied odds of near-term rate hikes, lifting real yields and forward rate expectations. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and PPI releases, and labor market data for signals on whether the Fed will hold or tighten further versus any easing path. Persistent inflation, growth resilience, and debt dynamics continue to anchor the longer end of the curve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$336,194Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.83% as of early September 2026, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky core inflation readings above target, and elevated term premium amid fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply. Recent Jackson Hole remarks and geopolitical tensions linked to Iran have boosted oil prices and market-implied odds of near-term rate hikes, lifting real yields and forward rate expectations. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and PPI releases, and labor market data for signals on whether the Fed will hold or tighten further versus any easing path. Persistent inflation, growth resilience, and debt dynamics continue to anchor the longer end of the curve.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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