Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
5,25%
17%
5,10%
23%
5,00%
32%
4,95%
41%
4,90%
43%
4,85%
52%
4,80%
56%
4,75%
65%
4,70%
71%
$0.00 Объем
5,25%
$0 Объем
17%
5,10%
$0 Объем
23%
5,00%
$0 Объем
32%
4,95%
$0 Объем
41%
4,90%
$0 Объем
43%
4,85%
$0 Объем
52%
4,80%
$0 Объем
56%
4,75%
$0 Объем
65%
4,70%
$0 Объем
71%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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