The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, coupled with signals of at least one additional hike this year, has anchored trader expectations and limited downside in 10-year Treasury yields. The benchmark yield climbed above 5.04 percent intraday earlier in the month—its highest level since 2007—before settling near 4.99 percent on September 18 amid the hawkish policy shift and resilient economic data. Elevated inflation readings, robust capital investment, and geopolitical pressures on energy prices reinforced the move higher after early-September lows near 4.78 percent. With no further FOMC meetings scheduled before month-end and industrial production data due September 18, market-implied odds favor limited additional yield compression absent a sharp reversal in incoming labor or inflation prints.