Robust Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026, holding near 4.7% as of early September after incorporating stronger personal consumption expenditures and equipment investment tied to AI capital outlays, underpin the 42% implied probability on growth of 3% or higher. This marks an acceleration from Q2’s 1.5% pace and aligns with upward revisions in economist surveys citing resilient household spending and business capex. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, alongside moderating but still elevated inflation readings around 3.3% CPI, support expectations for above-trend expansion. The official advance GDP estimate, due in late October, remains the key resolution catalyst, while any softening in September data could shift probabilities toward the 2.0-2.5% bucket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено≥3.0% 42%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,170 Объем
$25,170 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
4%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
42%
≥3.0% 42%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,170 Объем
$25,170 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
$896 Объем
2%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Объем
3%
1.0–1.5%
$650 Объем
4%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Объем
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,885 Объем
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,391 Объем
23%
≥3.0%
$17,072 Объем
42%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026, holding near 4.7% as of early September after incorporating stronger personal consumption expenditures and equipment investment tied to AI capital outlays, underpin the 42% implied probability on growth of 3% or higher. This marks an acceleration from Q2’s 1.5% pace and aligns with upward revisions in economist surveys citing resilient household spending and business capex. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, alongside moderating but still elevated inflation readings around 3.3% CPI, support expectations for above-trend expansion. The official advance GDP estimate, due in late October, remains the key resolution catalyst, while any softening in September data could shift probabilities toward the 2.0-2.5% bucket.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$25,170Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026, holding near 4.7% as of early September after incorporating stronger personal consumption expenditures and equipment investment tied to AI capital outlays, underpin the 42% implied probability on growth of 3% or higher. This marks an acceleration from Q2’s 1.5% pace and aligns with upward revisions in economist surveys citing resilient household spending and business capex. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, alongside moderating but still elevated inflation readings around 3.3% CPI, support expectations for above-trend expansion. The official advance GDP estimate, due in late October, remains the key resolution catalyst, while any softening in September data could shift probabilities toward the 2.0-2.5% bucket.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Объем
$25,170Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Robust Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026, holding near 4.7% as of early September after incorporating stronger personal consumption expenditures and equipment investment tied to AI capital outlays, underpin the 42% implied probability on growth of 3% or higher. This marks an acceleration from Q2’s 1.5% pace and aligns with upward revisions in economist surveys citing resilient household spending and business capex. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, alongside moderating but still elevated inflation readings around 3.3% CPI, support expectations for above-trend expansion. The official advance GDP estimate, due in late October, remains the key resolution catalyst, while any softening in September data could shift probabilities toward the 2.0-2.5% bucket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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