Robust institutional forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4% for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, strong business fixed investment in AI infrastructure, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.5% annualized—down from 2.1% in Q1—yet still positive amid decelerating but non-recessionary payroll gains and supportive equity market wealth effects. Market-implied odds at 98% for no contraction reflect this broad-based expansionary momentum and low historical base rates for full-year negative growth. Tail risks remain limited to severe oil-price spikes from Middle East escalation or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings, though current leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
$33,280 Объем
$33,280 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$33,280 Объем
$33,280 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4% for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, strong business fixed investment in AI infrastructure, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.5% annualized—down from 2.1% in Q1—yet still positive amid decelerating but non-recessionary payroll gains and supportive equity market wealth effects. Market-implied odds at 98% for no contraction reflect this broad-based expansionary momentum and low historical base rates for full-year negative growth. Tail risks remain limited to severe oil-price spikes from Middle East escalation or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings, though current leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$33,280Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4% for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, strong business fixed investment in AI infrastructure, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.5% annualized—down from 2.1% in Q1—yet still positive amid decelerating but non-recessionary payroll gains and supportive equity market wealth effects. Market-implied odds at 98% for no contraction reflect this broad-based expansionary momentum and low historical base rates for full-year negative growth. Tail risks remain limited to severe oil-price spikes from Middle East escalation or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings, though current leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$33,280Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Robust institutional forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4% for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, strong business fixed investment in AI infrastructure, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.5% annualized—down from 2.1% in Q1—yet still positive amid decelerating but non-recessionary payroll gains and supportive equity market wealth effects. Market-implied odds at 98% for no contraction reflect this broad-based expansionary momentum and low historical base rates for full-year negative growth. Tail risks remain limited to severe oil-price spikes from Middle East escalation or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings, though current leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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