Recent August employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains well above consensus and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for September amid a labor market that remains resilient yet shows signs of gradual cooling. Stronger-than-expected hiring and upward revisions have tempered recession fears, while consumer surveys indicate rising unemployment expectations and mixed participation trends. With September payrolls and the rate due October 2, market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.2% as the baseline, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job growth will offset any labor force shifts or seasonal factors. Broader context includes elevated inflation readings pressuring Fed policy and historical precedent of low-volatility moves near current levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,2% 33%
4,1% 32%
4,0% 20%
4,3% 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
≤3,8%
4%
3,9%
5%
4,0%
20%
4,1%
32%
4,2%
33%
4,3%
10%
4,4%
4%
4,5%
2%
≥4,6%
3%
4,2% 33%
4,1% 32%
4,0% 20%
4,3% 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
≤3,8%
$798 Объем
4%
3,9%
$141 Объем
5%
4,0%
$86 Объем
20%
4,1%
$1,309 Объем
32%
4,2%
$409 Объем
33%
4,3%
$87 Объем
10%
4,4%
$199 Объем
4%
4,5%
$529 Объем
2%
≥4,6%
$528 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains well above consensus and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for September amid a labor market that remains resilient yet shows signs of gradual cooling. Stronger-than-expected hiring and upward revisions have tempered recession fears, while consumer surveys indicate rising unemployment expectations and mixed participation trends. With September payrolls and the rate due October 2, market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.2% as the baseline, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job growth will offset any labor force shifts or seasonal factors. Broader context includes elevated inflation readings pressuring Fed policy and historical precedent of low-volatility moves near current levels.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Объем
$4,086Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains well above consensus and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for September amid a labor market that remains resilient yet shows signs of gradual cooling. Stronger-than-expected hiring and upward revisions have tempered recession fears, while consumer surveys indicate rising unemployment expectations and mixed participation trends. With September payrolls and the rate due October 2, market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.2% as the baseline, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job growth will offset any labor force shifts or seasonal factors. Broader context includes elevated inflation readings pressuring Fed policy and historical precedent of low-volatility moves near current levels.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$4,086Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains well above consensus and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for September amid a labor market that remains resilient yet shows signs of gradual cooling. Stronger-than-expected hiring and upward revisions have tempered recession fears, while consumer surveys indicate rising unemployment expectations and mixed participation trends. With September payrolls and the rate due October 2, market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.2% as the baseline, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job growth will offset any labor force shifts or seasonal factors. Broader context includes elevated inflation readings pressuring Fed policy and historical precedent of low-volatility moves near current levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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