The closely matched odds between an all-pause sequence through September and other outcomes reflect ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the labor market’s resilience clashes with sticky inflation. June and July decisions held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent amid elevated PCE readings near 4 percent and energy-driven supply shocks from Middle East developments, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike at the July session. Recent August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have reinforced arguments for tighter policy, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases will test whether core disinflation is progressing enough to support another pause. Trader positioning thus hinges on whether incoming data shifts the balance toward a September hike or sustained restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,981 Объем
$842,981 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,981 Объем
$842,981 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,527 Объем
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 Объем
1%
Other
$360,084 Объем
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched odds between an all-pause sequence through September and other outcomes reflect ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the labor market’s resilience clashes with sticky inflation. June and July decisions held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent amid elevated PCE readings near 4 percent and energy-driven supply shocks from Middle East developments, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike at the July session. Recent August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have reinforced arguments for tighter policy, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases will test whether core disinflation is progressing enough to support another pause. Trader positioning thus hinges on whether incoming data shifts the balance toward a September hike or sustained restraint.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$842,981Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched odds between an all-pause sequence through September and other outcomes reflect ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the labor market’s resilience clashes with sticky inflation. June and July decisions held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent amid elevated PCE readings near 4 percent and energy-driven supply shocks from Middle East developments, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike at the July session. Recent August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have reinforced arguments for tighter policy, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases will test whether core disinflation is progressing enough to support another pause. Trader positioning thus hinges on whether incoming data shifts the balance toward a September hike or sustained restraint.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$842,981Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched odds between an all-pause sequence through September and other outcomes reflect ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the labor market’s resilience clashes with sticky inflation. June and July decisions held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent amid elevated PCE readings near 4 percent and energy-driven supply shocks from Middle East developments, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike at the July session. Recent August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have reinforced arguments for tighter policy, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases will test whether core disinflation is progressing enough to support another pause. Trader positioning thus hinges on whether incoming data shifts the balance toward a September hike or sustained restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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