Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96–4.97% reflect oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, persistent producer and consumer inflation pressures, and market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting exceeding 70%. Elevated term premiums from fiscal deficits and Treasury supply, alongside firmer inflation expectations, have pushed yields to multiyear highs and steepened the curve. These dynamics, combined with resilient growth and geopolitical risks, suggest limited near-term downside while raising the probability of tests above 5% before 2027 absent rapid cooling in energy prices or labor data. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI revisions, jobs reports, and Fed communications for shifts in the implied rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$250,883 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96–4.97% reflect oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, persistent producer and consumer inflation pressures, and market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting exceeding 70%. Elevated term premiums from fiscal deficits and Treasury supply, alongside firmer inflation expectations, have pushed yields to multiyear highs and steepened the curve. These dynamics, combined with resilient growth and geopolitical risks, suggest limited near-term downside while raising the probability of tests above 5% before 2027 absent rapid cooling in energy prices or labor data. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI revisions, jobs reports, and Fed communications for shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Объем
$250,883Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96–4.97% reflect oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, persistent producer and consumer inflation pressures, and market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting exceeding 70%. Elevated term premiums from fiscal deficits and Treasury supply, alongside firmer inflation expectations, have pushed yields to multiyear highs and steepened the curve. These dynamics, combined with resilient growth and geopolitical risks, suggest limited near-term downside while raising the probability of tests above 5% before 2027 absent rapid cooling in energy prices or labor data. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI revisions, jobs reports, and Fed communications for shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$250,883Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96–4.97% reflect oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, persistent producer and consumer inflation pressures, and market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting exceeding 70%. Elevated term premiums from fiscal deficits and Treasury supply, alongside firmer inflation expectations, have pushed yields to multiyear highs and steepened the curve. These dynamics, combined with resilient growth and geopolitical risks, suggest limited near-term downside while raising the probability of tests above 5% before 2027 absent rapid cooling in energy prices or labor data. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI revisions, jobs reports, and Fed communications for shifts in the implied rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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