Recent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 30%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 15%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 13%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 11%
$16,134 Объем
$16,134 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
11%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
15%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
6%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
6%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
30%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
8%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
6%
Другое
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 30%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 15%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 13%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 11%
$16,134 Объем
$16,134 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
$329 Объем
11%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
$569 Объем
15%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
$231 Объем
6%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
$474 Объем
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
$623 Объем
6%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$11,754 Объем
30%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
$914 Объем
8%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
$946 Объем
6%
Другое
$294 Объем
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$16,134Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$16,134Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы