Recent Federal Reserve action and inflation dynamics dominate 5-year Treasury yield movements in September 2026. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and limited progress toward the 2% goal amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil supply risks. This hawkish shift, paired with August CPI data showing persistent price pressures, lifted the 5-year yield from early-month lows near 4.52% to approximately 4.79–4.89% by mid-September. Traders now price in additional tightening through year-end, with futures reflecting roughly even odds of a further hike by October. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, labor market data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before month-end or remain anchored higher by policy expectations and energy volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$10,603 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Ниже 4,52%
28%
Ниже 4,49%
28%
Ниже 4,46%
24%
Ниже 4,43%
20%
Ниже 4,40%
10%
Ниже 4,37%
8%
Ниже 4,32%
7%
Ниже 4,27%
6%
Ниже 4,20%
3%
$10,603 Объем
Ниже 4,52%
$2,656 Объем
28%
Ниже 4,49%
$964 Объем
28%
Ниже 4,46%
$445 Объем
24%
Ниже 4,43%
$380 Объем
20%
Ниже 4,40%
$438 Объем
10%
Ниже 4,37%
$1,091 Объем
8%
Ниже 4,32%
$1,536 Объем
7%
Ниже 4,27%
$1,637 Объем
6%
Ниже 4,20%
$1,456 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve action and inflation dynamics dominate 5-year Treasury yield movements in September 2026. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and limited progress toward the 2% goal amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil supply risks. This hawkish shift, paired with August CPI data showing persistent price pressures, lifted the 5-year yield from early-month lows near 4.52% to approximately 4.79–4.89% by mid-September. Traders now price in additional tightening through year-end, with futures reflecting roughly even odds of a further hike by October. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, labor market data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before month-end or remain anchored higher by policy expectations and energy volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
Объем
$10,603Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve action and inflation dynamics dominate 5-year Treasury yield movements in September 2026. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and limited progress toward the 2% goal amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil supply risks. This hawkish shift, paired with August CPI data showing persistent price pressures, lifted the 5-year yield from early-month lows near 4.52% to approximately 4.79–4.89% by mid-September. Traders now price in additional tightening through year-end, with futures reflecting roughly even odds of a further hike by October. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, labor market data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before month-end or remain anchored higher by policy expectations and energy volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Объем
$10,603Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent Federal Reserve action and inflation dynamics dominate 5-year Treasury yield movements in September 2026. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and limited progress toward the 2% goal amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil supply risks. This hawkish shift, paired with August CPI data showing persistent price pressures, lifted the 5-year yield from early-month lows near 4.52% to approximately 4.79–4.89% by mid-September. Traders now price in additional tightening through year-end, with futures reflecting roughly even odds of a further hike by October. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, labor market data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before month-end or remain anchored higher by policy expectations and energy volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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