The Federal Open Market Committee’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4 percent, its first hike in over three years, anchors the 97.3 percent implied probability against an emergency cut before 2027. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.7 percent, solid 2.3-2.4 percent GDP growth projections, a stable unemployment rate around 4.1 percent, and resilient consumer spending and productivity have shifted policymakers toward further tightening rather than easing. Markets price in another possible quarter-point move by year-end and elevated rates through 2027, consistent with historical precedent that inter-meeting cuts occur only amid acute systemic shocks. Tail risks such as a sharp financial crisis, severe recession, or major geopolitical disruption could still prompt an unscheduled meeting and reduction, though current data show no such conditions.