**Rebecca Cooke holds a substantial lead in the WI-03 House race on prediction markets due to the district’s swing character and her positioning as the stronger-funded challenger in a rematch.** The western Wisconsin seat, rated a toss-up by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, narrowly backed Republican Derrick Van Orden over Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination in August 2026 with roughly 57-60 percent in the primary and has maintained a clear fundraising advantage, raising over $8.6 million. Recent polling shows her ahead or tied, while Van Orden’s favorability sits underwater. National midterm dynamics, voter concerns over health care and tariffs in rural areas, and the incumbent’s low standing have shifted trader consensus toward a Democratic pickup on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-03 House Election Winner
WI-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
$4,332 Vol.
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
$2,073 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Rebecca Cooke holds a substantial lead in the WI-03 House race on prediction markets due to the district’s swing character and her positioning as the stronger-funded challenger in a rematch.** The western Wisconsin seat, rated a toss-up by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, narrowly backed Republican Derrick Van Orden over Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination in August 2026 with roughly 57-60 percent in the primary and has maintained a clear fundraising advantage, raising over $8.6 million. Recent polling shows her ahead or tied, while Van Orden’s favorability sits underwater. National midterm dynamics, voter concerns over health care and tariffs in rural areas, and the incumbent’s low standing have shifted trader consensus toward a Democratic pickup on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$6,405End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Rebecca Cooke holds a substantial lead in the WI-03 House race on prediction markets due to the district’s swing character and her positioning as the stronger-funded challenger in a rematch.** The western Wisconsin seat, rated a toss-up by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, narrowly backed Republican Derrick Van Orden over Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination in August 2026 with roughly 57-60 percent in the primary and has maintained a clear fundraising advantage, raising over $8.6 million. Recent polling shows her ahead or tied, while Van Orden’s favorability sits underwater. National midterm dynamics, voter concerns over health care and tariffs in rural areas, and the incumbent’s low standing have shifted trader consensus toward a Democratic pickup on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,405End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Rebecca Cooke holds a substantial lead in the WI-03 House race on prediction markets due to the district’s swing character and her positioning as the stronger-funded challenger in a rematch.** The western Wisconsin seat, rated a toss-up by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, narrowly backed Republican Derrick Van Orden over Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination in August 2026 with roughly 57-60 percent in the primary and has maintained a clear fundraising advantage, raising over $8.6 million. Recent polling shows her ahead or tied, while Van Orden’s favorability sits underwater. National midterm dynamics, voter concerns over health care and tariffs in rural areas, and the incumbent’s low standing have shifted trader consensus toward a Democratic pickup on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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