Gwen Moore’s commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from her long tenure as the district’s Democratic incumbent since 2005 and the seat’s strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of D+26 and consistent past general-election margins above 50 points. The Milwaukee-centered district delivered her roughly 75% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024 against the same Republican opponent. Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary despite a challenge from the party’s left, while Tim Rogers again won the Republican primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus assigns her a 96% implied probability because structural factors and historical results leave little room for an upset absent an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
96%
Tim Rogers (R)
1%
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
$14,357 Vol.
96%
Tim Rogers (R)
$22,431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from her long tenure as the district’s Democratic incumbent since 2005 and the seat’s strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of D+26 and consistent past general-election margins above 50 points. The Milwaukee-centered district delivered her roughly 75% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024 against the same Republican opponent. Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary despite a challenge from the party’s left, while Tim Rogers again won the Republican primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus assigns her a 96% implied probability because structural factors and historical results leave little room for an upset absent an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from her long tenure as the district’s Democratic incumbent since 2005 and the seat’s strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of D+26 and consistent past general-election margins above 50 points. The Milwaukee-centered district delivered her roughly 75% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024 against the same Republican opponent. Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary despite a challenge from the party’s left, while Tim Rogers again won the Republican primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus assigns her a 96% implied probability because structural factors and historical results leave little room for an upset absent an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gwen Moore’s commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from her long tenure as the district’s Democratic incumbent since 2005 and the seat’s strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of D+26 and consistent past general-election margins above 50 points. The Milwaukee-centered district delivered her roughly 75% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024 against the same Republican opponent. Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary despite a challenge from the party’s left, while Tim Rogers again won the Republican primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus assigns her a 96% implied probability because structural factors and historical results leave little room for an upset absent an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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