Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his established record as a three-term senator, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $16 million in cash on hand, and consistent polling leads of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than two decades, and forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won his August primary with 51.5 percent, brings military and intelligence experience but lacks prior elected office and faces limited resources. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Warner reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,148 Vol.
$23,148 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Warner (D)
96%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
5%
$23,148 Vol.
$23,148 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Warner (D)
$15,894 Vol.
96%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
$7,254 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his established record as a three-term senator, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $16 million in cash on hand, and consistent polling leads of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than two decades, and forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won his August primary with 51.5 percent, brings military and intelligence experience but lacks prior elected office and faces limited resources. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Warner reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$23,148End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his established record as a three-term senator, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $16 million in cash on hand, and consistent polling leads of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than two decades, and forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won his August primary with 51.5 percent, brings military and intelligence experience but lacks prior elected office and faces limited resources. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Warner reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$23,148End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his established record as a three-term senator, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $16 million in cash on hand, and consistent polling leads of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than two decades, and forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won his August primary with 51.5 percent, brings military and intelligence experience but lacks prior elected office and faces limited resources. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Warner reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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