Morena holds a substantial lead in party preference surveys for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election, positioning its eventual nominee as the frontrunner in a state where the party has governed since 2019. Within Morena, recent polling shows Julieta Ramírez Padilla maintaining a narrow edge over Ismael Burgueño Ruiz, with Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas closing ground and other figures such as Evangelina Moreno Guerra and Montserrat Caballero Ramírez remaining competitive. The internal nomination process, expected to rely on party surveys, keeps probabilities clustered as candidates manage leaves from office and navigate coalition dynamics with allied parties. Shifts could emerge from upcoming internal measurements, local approval trends, or developments affecting candidate viability ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsmael Burgueño Ruiz 29%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra 28.4%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla 26.6%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez <1%
$33,189 Vol.
$33,189 Vol.
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
29%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
28%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
32%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Víctor Galicia
<1%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
<1%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
<1%
Juan Carlos Hank
<1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 29%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra 28.4%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla 26.6%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez <1%
$33,189 Vol.
$33,189 Vol.
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
29%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
28%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
32%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Víctor Galicia
<1%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
<1%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
<1%
Juan Carlos Hank
<1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Morena holds a substantial lead in party preference surveys for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election, positioning its eventual nominee as the frontrunner in a state where the party has governed since 2019. Within Morena, recent polling shows Julieta Ramírez Padilla maintaining a narrow edge over Ismael Burgueño Ruiz, with Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas closing ground and other figures such as Evangelina Moreno Guerra and Montserrat Caballero Ramírez remaining competitive. The internal nomination process, expected to rely on party surveys, keeps probabilities clustered as candidates manage leaves from office and navigate coalition dynamics with allied parties. Shifts could emerge from upcoming internal measurements, local approval trends, or developments affecting candidate viability ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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