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icon for Sinaloa Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

icon for Sinaloa Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

Imelda Castro Castro 87%

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo 3.4%

Omar López Campos 3.3%

Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil 3.1%

Polymarket

$29,028 Vol.

Imelda Castro Castro 87%

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo 3.4%

Omar López Campos 3.3%

Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil 3.1%

Polymarket

$29,028 Vol.

icon for Imelda Castro Castro

Imelda Castro Castro

$14,167 Vol.

87%

icon for Tomás de Jesús López Bajo

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo

$413 Vol.

3%

icon for Omar López Campos

Omar López Campos

$524 Vol.

3%

icon for Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil

Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil

$373 Vol.

3%

icon for Eduardo Ortiz Hernández

Eduardo Ortiz Hernández

$358 Vol.

3%

icon for Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros

Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros

$417 Vol.

2%

icon for Sergio Torres Félix

Sergio Torres Félix

$402 Vol.

2%

icon for Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos

Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos

$353 Vol.

2%

icon for Roxana Rubio Valdez

Roxana Rubio Valdez

$353 Vol.

2%

icon for Guillermo Romero Rodríguez

Guillermo Romero Rodríguez

$353 Vol.

2%

icon for María Teresa Guerra Ochoa

María Teresa Guerra Ochoa

$7,803 Vol.

2%

icon for Lucila Ayala de Moreschi

Lucila Ayala de Moreschi

$332 Vol.

2%

icon for Ricardo Madrid Pérez

Ricardo Madrid Pérez

$358 Vol.

2%

icon for Paloma Sánchez Ramos

Paloma Sánchez Ramos

$338 Vol.

2%

icon for María Fernanda Rivera

María Fernanda Rivera

$332 Vol.

1%

icon for Graciela Domínguez Nava

Graciela Domínguez Nava

$372 Vol.

1%

icon for Mario Zamora Gastélum

Mario Zamora Gastélum

$372 Vol.

1%

icon for Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez

Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez

$353 Vol.

1%

icon for Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García

Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García

$353 Vol.

1%

icon for Jesús Fernando García Hernández

Jesús Fernando García Hernández

$353 Vol.

1%

icon for Estrella Palacios Domínguez

Estrella Palacios Domínguez

$353 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Imelda Castro Castro holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Sinaloa governor market because Morena and its allies designated her state coordinator for the defense of the transformation in late August 2026, effectively securing the party's nomination ahead of the June 2027 election. This followed an internal registration process in June involving 13 aspirants and the withdrawal or sidelining of figures tied to former governor Rubén Rocha Moya amid federal investigations. Recent polling from mid-2026 showed Castro leading Morena preferences and hypothetical general-election matchups against PRI, PAN, and other opposition contenders, reflecting the party's dominant position in the state. Lower-priced names such as Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil, Tomás de Jesús López Bajo, and various listed aspirants remain marginal because they lack comparable party machinery or polling traction as the formal electoral timeline begins in September 2026. Trader consensus therefore centers on Castro's structural advantages entering the campaign period.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$29,028
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Imelda Castro Castro holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Sinaloa governor market because Morena and its allies designated her state coordinator for the defense of the transformation in late August 2026, effectively securing the party's nomination ahead of the June 2027 election. This followed an internal registration process in June involving 13 aspirants and the withdrawal or sidelining of figures tied to former governor Rubén Rocha Moya amid federal investigations. Recent polling from mid-2026 showed Castro leading Morena preferences and hypothetical general-election matchups against PRI, PAN, and other opposition contenders, reflecting the party's dominant position in the state. Lower-priced names such as Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil, Tomás de Jesús López Bajo, and various listed aspirants remain marginal because they lack comparable party machinery or polling traction as the formal electoral timeline begins in September 2026. Trader consensus therefore centers on Castro's structural advantages entering the campaign period.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$29,028
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Imelda Castro Castro" at 87%, followed by "Tomás de Jesús López Bajo" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" has generated $29K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" is "Imelda Castro Castro" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tomás de Jesús López Bajo" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.