Mexico's annual inflation has moderated from early-2026 peaks above 4.5% to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026, driven by easing non-core components such as energy and agricultural prices alongside subdued domestic demand. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% after concluding its easing cycle. Market-implied odds favor a 4.00-4.49% outcome for the full year, consistent with analyst projections around 3.9-4.1% that incorporate fiscal consolidation challenges, USMCA-related investment uncertainty, and potential geopolitical energy shocks. Traders appear to weigh the recent disinflation trajectory against upside risks from sticky core readings and external factors, with upcoming monthly CPI prints likely to refine positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.00% a 4.49% 38%
3.00% a 3.49% 20.9%
3.50% a 3.99% 17.4%
4.50% a 4.99% 8%
$67,282 Vol.
$67,282 Vol.
7 ene 2027
<2.50%
7%
2.50% a 2.99%
6%
3.00% a 3.49%
21%
3.50% a 3.99%
17%
4.00% a 4.49%
38%
4.50% a 4.99%
8%
5.00% a 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
1%
4.00% a 4.49% 38%
3.00% a 3.49% 20.9%
3.50% a 3.99% 17.4%
4.50% a 4.99% 8%
$67,282 Vol.
$67,282 Vol.
7 ene 2027
<2.50%
$1,195 Vol.
7%
2.50% a 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
6%
3.00% a 3.49%
$29,128 Vol.
21%
3.50% a 3.99%
$4,248 Vol.
17%
4.00% a 4.49%
$13,991 Vol.
38%
4.50% a 4.99%
$4,932 Vol.
8%
5.00% a 5.49%
$2,577 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,318 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's annual inflation has moderated from early-2026 peaks above 4.5% to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026, driven by easing non-core components such as energy and agricultural prices alongside subdued domestic demand. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% after concluding its easing cycle. Market-implied odds favor a 4.00-4.49% outcome for the full year, consistent with analyst projections around 3.9-4.1% that incorporate fiscal consolidation challenges, USMCA-related investment uncertainty, and potential geopolitical energy shocks. Traders appear to weigh the recent disinflation trajectory against upside risks from sticky core readings and external factors, with upcoming monthly CPI prints likely to refine positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$67,282Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's annual inflation has moderated from early-2026 peaks above 4.5% to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026, driven by easing non-core components such as energy and agricultural prices alongside subdued domestic demand. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% after concluding its easing cycle. Market-implied odds favor a 4.00-4.49% outcome for the full year, consistent with analyst projections around 3.9-4.1% that incorporate fiscal consolidation challenges, USMCA-related investment uncertainty, and potential geopolitical energy shocks. Traders appear to weigh the recent disinflation trajectory against upside risks from sticky core readings and external factors, with upcoming monthly CPI prints likely to refine positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$67,282Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's annual inflation has moderated from early-2026 peaks above 4.5% to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026, driven by easing non-core components such as energy and agricultural prices alongside subdued domestic demand. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% after concluding its easing cycle. Market-implied odds favor a 4.00-4.49% outcome for the full year, consistent with analyst projections around 3.9-4.1% that incorporate fiscal consolidation challenges, USMCA-related investment uncertainty, and potential geopolitical energy shocks. Traders appear to weigh the recent disinflation trajectory against upside risks from sticky core readings and external factors, with upcoming monthly CPI prints likely to refine positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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