Recent August data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 payroll gains and upward revisions to prior months has anchored trader expectations for September near current levels. Moderating labor demand amid slower GDP growth, reduced net immigration constraining workforce expansion, and wage growth lagging inflation have fostered a balanced but cooling market. Key swing factors include September's upcoming CPI release, consumer sentiment readings, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the October 2 employment report. With 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding roughly equal implied probabilities, markets reflect uncertainty over whether seasonal factors or policy-driven labor supply effects will tip the balance in the final reading.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,2% 33%
4,1% 32%
4,0% 19%
4,3% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
≤3,8%
4%
3,9%
5%
4,0%
19%
4,1%
32%
4,2%
33%
4,3%
10%
4,4%
4%
4,5%
2%
≥4.6%
3%
4,2% 33%
4,1% 32%
4,0% 19%
4,3% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
≤3,8%
$798 Vol.
4%
3,9%
$141 Vol.
5%
4,0%
$86 Vol.
19%
4,1%
$1,309 Vol.
32%
4,2%
$409 Vol.
33%
4,3%
$87 Vol.
10%
4,4%
$199 Vol.
4%
4,5%
$529 Vol.
2%
≥4.6%
$528 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 payroll gains and upward revisions to prior months has anchored trader expectations for September near current levels. Moderating labor demand amid slower GDP growth, reduced net immigration constraining workforce expansion, and wage growth lagging inflation have fostered a balanced but cooling market. Key swing factors include September's upcoming CPI release, consumer sentiment readings, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the October 2 employment report. With 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding roughly equal implied probabilities, markets reflect uncertainty over whether seasonal factors or policy-driven labor supply effects will tip the balance in the final reading.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volumen
$4,086Fecha de finalización
2 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 payroll gains and upward revisions to prior months has anchored trader expectations for September near current levels. Moderating labor demand amid slower GDP growth, reduced net immigration constraining workforce expansion, and wage growth lagging inflation have fostered a balanced but cooling market. Key swing factors include September's upcoming CPI release, consumer sentiment readings, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the October 2 employment report. With 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding roughly equal implied probabilities, markets reflect uncertainty over whether seasonal factors or policy-driven labor supply effects will tip the balance in the final reading.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$4,086Fecha de finalización
2 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 payroll gains and upward revisions to prior months has anchored trader expectations for September near current levels. Moderating labor demand amid slower GDP growth, reduced net immigration constraining workforce expansion, and wage growth lagging inflation have fostered a balanced but cooling market. Key swing factors include September's upcoming CPI release, consumer sentiment readings, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the October 2 employment report. With 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding roughly equal implied probabilities, markets reflect uncertainty over whether seasonal factors or policy-driven labor supply effects will tip the balance in the final reading.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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