**Elevated inflation above the 3% target, currently running at 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026 after a hotter-than-expected print, underpins the 70% market-implied probability of no change at the Central Bank of Colombia’s October policy meeting.** With the benchmark rate already at 12.00% following the June 75-basis-point hike and a subsequent hold in July, traders view the stance as sufficiently restrictive amid peso strength and moderating real-rate pressures. Analyst surveys point to a hold through year-end, reflecting caution over the lagged effects of prior tightening and fiscal dynamics that have lifted the neutral rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September inflation release, labor market data, and the board’s assessment of whether inflation expectations—now near 6.6–6.9% for December—warrant further adjustment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambios 72%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 12.2%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 12%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambios
72%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
12%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
12%
Sin cambios 72%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 12.2%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 12%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$542 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$1,367 Vol.
6%
Sin cambios
$5,536 Vol.
72%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$964 Vol.
12%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,218 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated inflation above the 3% target, currently running at 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026 after a hotter-than-expected print, underpins the 70% market-implied probability of no change at the Central Bank of Colombia’s October policy meeting.** With the benchmark rate already at 12.00% following the June 75-basis-point hike and a subsequent hold in July, traders view the stance as sufficiently restrictive amid peso strength and moderating real-rate pressures. Analyst surveys point to a hold through year-end, reflecting caution over the lagged effects of prior tightening and fiscal dynamics that have lifted the neutral rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September inflation release, labor market data, and the board’s assessment of whether inflation expectations—now near 6.6–6.9% for December—warrant further adjustment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Volumen
$9,628Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated inflation above the 3% target, currently running at 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026 after a hotter-than-expected print, underpins the 70% market-implied probability of no change at the Central Bank of Colombia’s October policy meeting.** With the benchmark rate already at 12.00% following the June 75-basis-point hike and a subsequent hold in July, traders view the stance as sufficiently restrictive amid peso strength and moderating real-rate pressures. Analyst surveys point to a hold through year-end, reflecting caution over the lagged effects of prior tightening and fiscal dynamics that have lifted the neutral rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September inflation release, labor market data, and the board’s assessment of whether inflation expectations—now near 6.6–6.9% for December—warrant further adjustment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$9,628Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation above the 3% target, currently running at 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026 after a hotter-than-expected print, underpins the 70% market-implied probability of no change at the Central Bank of Colombia’s October policy meeting.** With the benchmark rate already at 12.00% following the June 75-basis-point hike and a subsequent hold in July, traders view the stance as sufficiently restrictive amid peso strength and moderating real-rate pressures. Analyst surveys point to a hold through year-end, reflecting caution over the lagged effects of prior tightening and fiscal dynamics that have lifted the neutral rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September inflation release, labor market data, and the board’s assessment of whether inflation expectations—now near 6.6–6.9% for December—warrant further adjustment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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