Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 31%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Sin cambio
68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
31%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 31%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$236,585 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$545,170 Vol.
4%
Sin cambio
$223,772 Vol.
68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$254,048 Vol.
31%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$157,861 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,417,437Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,417,437Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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