Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures above the Fed's 2% target, combined with a stable labor market and resilient growth, underpin the 92.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has shifted toward potential 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming meetings like September 15-16, reflecting supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs rather than demand weakness. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on platforms like Polymarket, views scheduled policy as sufficient without crisis-driven intervention outside regular FOMC calendars. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, major geopolitical escalation, or abrupt labor market collapse could still prompt an unscheduled easing, though current data show limited signs of such triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
8% probabilidad
$212,636 Vol.
$212,636 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
8% probabilidad
$212,636 Vol.
$212,636 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures above the Fed's 2% target, combined with a stable labor market and resilient growth, underpin the 92.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has shifted toward potential 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming meetings like September 15-16, reflecting supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs rather than demand weakness. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on platforms like Polymarket, views scheduled policy as sufficient without crisis-driven intervention outside regular FOMC calendars. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, major geopolitical escalation, or abrupt labor market collapse could still prompt an unscheduled easing, though current data show limited signs of such triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$212,636Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures above the Fed's 2% target, combined with a stable labor market and resilient growth, underpin the 92.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has shifted toward potential 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming meetings like September 15-16, reflecting supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs rather than demand weakness. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on platforms like Polymarket, views scheduled policy as sufficient without crisis-driven intervention outside regular FOMC calendars. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, major geopolitical escalation, or abrupt labor market collapse could still prompt an unscheduled easing, though current data show limited signs of such triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volumen
$212,636Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures above the Fed's 2% target, combined with a stable labor market and resilient growth, underpin the 92.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has shifted toward potential 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming meetings like September 15-16, reflecting supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs rather than demand weakness. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on platforms like Polymarket, views scheduled policy as sufficient without crisis-driven intervention outside regular FOMC calendars. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, major geopolitical escalation, or abrupt labor market collapse could still prompt an unscheduled easing, though current data show limited signs of such triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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