Recent Focus survey data show market economists trimming their 2026 IPCA median to 5.00 percent, aligning with Polymarket’s leading 5.00-5.49 percent bin at 41.2 percent. July’s 4.44 percent year-over-year reading returned inflation to the central bank’s 3 percent target band (plus or minus 1.5 percentage points) on softer food prices, while the August IPCA-15 mid-month print fell 0.40 percent month-over-month. Persistent above-target expectations reflect still-elevated administered prices and a Selic rate projected to close the year at 13.75 percent after successive 25-basis-point cuts. The tight spread versus the 4.50-4.99 percent outcome at 33.5 percent highlights uncertainty ahead of the September 11 IPCA release and the September 15-16 Copom meeting, where further data on activity and commodity pass-through could shift the balance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 41.2%
4,50-4,99% 33.6%
5,50-5,99% 17.9%
4,00-4,49 % 1.9%
$107,293 Vol.
$107,293 Vol.
11 ene 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
<1%
3,50-3,99%
1%
4,00-4,49 %
2%
4,50-4,99%
34%
5,00-5,49%
41%
5,50-5,99%
18%
6,00-6,49%
2%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
<1%
5,00-5,49% 41.2%
4,50-4,99% 33.6%
5,50-5,99% 17.9%
4,00-4,49 % 1.9%
$107,293 Vol.
$107,293 Vol.
11 ene 2027
<3,00%
$6,485 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$6,367 Vol.
<1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,840 Vol.
1%
4,00-4,49 %
$14,865 Vol.
2%
4,50-4,99%
$18,166 Vol.
34%
5,00-5,49%
$16,619 Vol.
41%
5,50-5,99%
$11,228 Vol.
18%
6,00-6,49%
$7,549 Vol.
2%
6,50-6,99%
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$5,134 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data show market economists trimming their 2026 IPCA median to 5.00 percent, aligning with Polymarket’s leading 5.00-5.49 percent bin at 41.2 percent. July’s 4.44 percent year-over-year reading returned inflation to the central bank’s 3 percent target band (plus or minus 1.5 percentage points) on softer food prices, while the August IPCA-15 mid-month print fell 0.40 percent month-over-month. Persistent above-target expectations reflect still-elevated administered prices and a Selic rate projected to close the year at 13.75 percent after successive 25-basis-point cuts. The tight spread versus the 4.50-4.99 percent outcome at 33.5 percent highlights uncertainty ahead of the September 11 IPCA release and the September 15-16 Copom meeting, where further data on activity and commodity pass-through could shift the balance.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$107,293Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data show market economists trimming their 2026 IPCA median to 5.00 percent, aligning with Polymarket’s leading 5.00-5.49 percent bin at 41.2 percent. July’s 4.44 percent year-over-year reading returned inflation to the central bank’s 3 percent target band (plus or minus 1.5 percentage points) on softer food prices, while the August IPCA-15 mid-month print fell 0.40 percent month-over-month. Persistent above-target expectations reflect still-elevated administered prices and a Selic rate projected to close the year at 13.75 percent after successive 25-basis-point cuts. The tight spread versus the 4.50-4.99 percent outcome at 33.5 percent highlights uncertainty ahead of the September 11 IPCA release and the September 15-16 Copom meeting, where further data on activity and commodity pass-through could shift the balance.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$107,293Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Focus survey data show market economists trimming their 2026 IPCA median to 5.00 percent, aligning with Polymarket’s leading 5.00-5.49 percent bin at 41.2 percent. July’s 4.44 percent year-over-year reading returned inflation to the central bank’s 3 percent target band (plus or minus 1.5 percentage points) on softer food prices, while the August IPCA-15 mid-month print fell 0.40 percent month-over-month. Persistent above-target expectations reflect still-elevated administered prices and a Selic rate projected to close the year at 13.75 percent after successive 25-basis-point cuts. The tight spread versus the 4.50-4.99 percent outcome at 33.5 percent highlights uncertainty ahead of the September 11 IPCA release and the September 15-16 Copom meeting, where further data on activity and commodity pass-through could shift the balance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes