Escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran, including recent U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and related exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, have accelerated the rial's depreciation on the free market, pushing the USD/IRR rate above 2.3 million rials per dollar as of early September. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to a close at or above 2.2 million by month-end, reflecting sustained pressure from the U.S. naval blockade, expanded sanctions under initiatives targeting Iranian financial and commercial channels, and the suspension of UAE trade links that previously supported currency flows. High domestic inflation, capital flight, and speculative demand have compounded the effect, while official rates remain far below parallel-market levels and central bank measures have shown limited impact. No near-term diplomatic or policy shifts have emerged to reverse the trajectory within the resolution window.