Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core at 2.5%, has sustained concerns that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal amid energy price pressures. The July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized ongoing work to restore price stability. These factors, combined with primary dealer and economist forecasts showing a growing minority expecting at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
74% probabilidad
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sí
74% probabilidad
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core at 2.5%, has sustained concerns that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal amid energy price pressures. The July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized ongoing work to restore price stability. These factors, combined with primary dealer and economist forecasts showing a growing minority expecting at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$8,781,019Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core at 2.5%, has sustained concerns that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal amid energy price pressures. The July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized ongoing work to restore price stability. These factors, combined with primary dealer and economist forecasts showing a growing minority expecting at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$8,781,019Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core at 2.5%, has sustained concerns that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal amid energy price pressures. The July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized ongoing work to restore price stability. These factors, combined with primary dealer and economist forecasts showing a growing minority expecting at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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