Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions and recent Federal Reserve stress-test results underpin the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The June 2026 supervisory exercise showed all 32 tested institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses while their aggregate common equity Tier 1 ratio fell only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Elevated CET1 ratios near 12-13%, strong profitability, and routine dividend increases reflect sustained resilience amid contained credit risks. Traders view post-Dodd-Frank requirements and liquidity buffers as effective safeguards. A severe, unforeseen macroeconomic shock—such as a deeper recession than modeled or sharp asset-price declines—could still test these defenses and alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un importante rescate bancario de EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Un importante rescate bancario de EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions and recent Federal Reserve stress-test results underpin the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The June 2026 supervisory exercise showed all 32 tested institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses while their aggregate common equity Tier 1 ratio fell only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Elevated CET1 ratios near 12-13%, strong profitability, and routine dividend increases reflect sustained resilience amid contained credit risks. Traders view post-Dodd-Frank requirements and liquidity buffers as effective safeguards. A severe, unforeseen macroeconomic shock—such as a deeper recession than modeled or sharp asset-price declines—could still test these defenses and alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volumen
$4,183Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions and recent Federal Reserve stress-test results underpin the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The June 2026 supervisory exercise showed all 32 tested institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses while their aggregate common equity Tier 1 ratio fell only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Elevated CET1 ratios near 12-13%, strong profitability, and routine dividend increases reflect sustained resilience amid contained credit risks. Traders view post-Dodd-Frank requirements and liquidity buffers as effective safeguards. A severe, unforeseen macroeconomic shock—such as a deeper recession than modeled or sharp asset-price declines—could still test these defenses and alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volumen
$4,183Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions and recent Federal Reserve stress-test results underpin the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The June 2026 supervisory exercise showed all 32 tested institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses while their aggregate common equity Tier 1 ratio fell only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Elevated CET1 ratios near 12-13%, strong profitability, and routine dividend increases reflect sustained resilience amid contained credit risks. Traders view post-Dodd-Frank requirements and liquidity buffers as effective safeguards. A severe, unforeseen macroeconomic shock—such as a deeper recession than modeled or sharp asset-price declines—could still test these defenses and alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes