Recent readings show Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year in August 2026, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fifth straight month, while the core measure ex-fresh food eased to 1.7%. Trader positioning favoring the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 reflects BoJ projections of underlying inflation accelerating toward or above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through. The central bank's September rate hike to 1.25% and upside risk warnings underscore these pressures, though subsidies and base effects have capped near-term prints. Market-implied odds price in a gradual convergence to the target without sharp overshoots.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4,0 %+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
12 feb 2027
≤1.9%
23%
2.0-2.4%
78%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3,0-3,4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4,0 %+
1%
2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4,0 %+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
12 feb 2027
≤1.9%
$17,276 Vol.
23%
2.0-2.4%
$26,450 Vol.
78%
2.5-2.9%
$11,369 Vol.
1%
3,0-3,4%
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,485 Vol.
<1%
4,0 %+
$2,072 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year in August 2026, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fifth straight month, while the core measure ex-fresh food eased to 1.7%. Trader positioning favoring the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 reflects BoJ projections of underlying inflation accelerating toward or above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through. The central bank's September rate hike to 1.25% and upside risk warnings underscore these pressures, though subsidies and base effects have capped near-term prints. Market-implied odds price in a gradual convergence to the target without sharp overshoots.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$61,116Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year in August 2026, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fifth straight month, while the core measure ex-fresh food eased to 1.7%. Trader positioning favoring the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 reflects BoJ projections of underlying inflation accelerating toward or above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through. The central bank's September rate hike to 1.25% and upside risk warnings underscore these pressures, though subsidies and base effects have capped near-term prints. Market-implied odds price in a gradual convergence to the target without sharp overshoots.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volumen
$61,116Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings show Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year in August 2026, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fifth straight month, while the core measure ex-fresh food eased to 1.7%. Trader positioning favoring the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 reflects BoJ projections of underlying inflation accelerating toward or above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through. The central bank's September rate hike to 1.25% and upside risk warnings underscore these pressures, though subsidies and base effects have capped near-term prints. Market-implied odds price in a gradual convergence to the target without sharp overshoots.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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