Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
2.0–2.5% 45%
1,5–2,0% 38.1%
>2,5% 6.8%
1.0–1.5% 3.2%
$60,615 Vol.
$60,615 Vol.
28 ene 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1,5–2,0%
42%
2.0–2.5%
45%
>2,5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 45%
1,5–2,0% 38.1%
>2,5% 6.8%
1.0–1.5% 3.2%
$60,615 Vol.
$60,615 Vol.
28 ene 2027
<0.5%
$7,659 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,367 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,951 Vol.
3%
1,5–2,0%
$7,588 Vol.
42%
2.0–2.5%
$7,922 Vol.
45%
>2,5%
$16,129 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$60,615Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$60,615Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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