Federal Reserve policymakers' September 2026 projections show median real GDP growth of 2.3% for the year on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, with the full range spanning 2.1% to 2.6% and no forecasts indicating contraction. This aligns with Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates exceeding 5% annualized for Q3 and private forecasts clustering near 2.0-2.1%, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Trader consensus at 98% against negative growth reflects these data-driven expectations of expansion above potential, though tail risks such as sharper inflation requiring additional policy tightening, geopolitical shocks, or an abrupt pullback in AI-related capital spending could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
2% probabilidad
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 ene 2027
Sí
2% probabilidad
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Federal Reserve policymakers' September 2026 projections show median real GDP growth of 2.3% for the year on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, with the full range spanning 2.1% to 2.6% and no forecasts indicating contraction. This aligns with Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates exceeding 5% annualized for Q3 and private forecasts clustering near 2.0-2.1%, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Trader consensus at 98% against negative growth reflects these data-driven expectations of expansion above potential, though tail risks such as sharper inflation requiring additional policy tightening, geopolitical shocks, or an abrupt pullback in AI-related capital spending could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$33,280Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Federal Reserve policymakers' September 2026 projections show median real GDP growth of 2.3% for the year on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, with the full range spanning 2.1% to 2.6% and no forecasts indicating contraction. This aligns with Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates exceeding 5% annualized for Q3 and private forecasts clustering near 2.0-2.1%, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Trader consensus at 98% against negative growth reflects these data-driven expectations of expansion above potential, though tail risks such as sharper inflation requiring additional policy tightening, geopolitical shocks, or an abrupt pullback in AI-related capital spending could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$33,280Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal Reserve policymakers' September 2026 projections show median real GDP growth of 2.3% for the year on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, with the full range spanning 2.1% to 2.6% and no forecasts indicating contraction. This aligns with Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates exceeding 5% annualized for Q3 and private forecasts clustering near 2.0-2.1%, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Trader consensus at 98% against negative growth reflects these data-driven expectations of expansion above potential, though tail risks such as sharper inflation requiring additional policy tightening, geopolitical shocks, or an abrupt pullback in AI-related capital spending could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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