Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 tested institutions maintaining CET1 ratios above minimums after absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses, with aggregate capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Second-quarter 2026 FDIC data reinforced this, with industry net income rising 12% quarter-over-quarter, problem banks at a low 1.1% of total institutions, and strong liquidity via elevated Treasury holdings. Banks responded by increasing dividends and authorizing buybacks. While a sudden macroeconomic shock or concentrated commercial real estate deterioration could test buffers, current regulatory capital levels and earnings trajectories make such an outcome improbable in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
7% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 tested institutions maintaining CET1 ratios above minimums after absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses, with aggregate capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Second-quarter 2026 FDIC data reinforced this, with industry net income rising 12% quarter-over-quarter, problem banks at a low 1.1% of total institutions, and strong liquidity via elevated Treasury holdings. Banks responded by increasing dividends and authorizing buybacks. While a sudden macroeconomic shock or concentrated commercial real estate deterioration could test buffers, current regulatory capital levels and earnings trajectories make such an outcome improbable in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
交易量
$4,183結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 tested institutions maintaining CET1 ratios above minimums after absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses, with aggregate capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Second-quarter 2026 FDIC data reinforced this, with industry net income rising 12% quarter-over-quarter, problem banks at a low 1.1% of total institutions, and strong liquidity via elevated Treasury holdings. Banks responded by increasing dividends and authorizing buybacks. While a sudden macroeconomic shock or concentrated commercial real estate deterioration could test buffers, current regulatory capital levels and earnings trajectories make such an outcome improbable in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
交易量
$4,183結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETLarge U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 tested institutions maintaining CET1 ratios above minimums after absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses, with aggregate capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Second-quarter 2026 FDIC data reinforced this, with industry net income rising 12% quarter-over-quarter, problem banks at a low 1.1% of total institutions, and strong liquidity via elevated Treasury holdings. Banks responded by increasing dividends and authorizing buybacks. While a sudden macroeconomic shock or concentrated commercial real estate deterioration could test buffers, current regulatory capital levels and earnings trajectories make such an outcome improbable in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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