Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$18,863 交易量
2026-09-30
低於4.76%
52%
低於4.73%
33%
低於4.70%
12%
低於4.67%
10%
低於4.64%
12%
低於4.61%
4%
低於4.56%
4%
低於4.51%
7%
低於4.45%
3%
$18,863 交易量
低於4.76%
$7,559 交易量
52%
低於4.73%
$1,124 交易量
33%
低於4.70%
$3,141 交易量
12%
低於4.67%
$220 交易量
10%
低於4.64%
$1,638 交易量
12%
低於4.61%
$2,030 交易量
4%
低於4.56%
$763 交易量
4%
低於4.51%
$436 交易量
7%
低於4.45%
$1,953 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$18,863結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$18,863結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRecent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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