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icon for 2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·聯邦利率

2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

icon for 2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·聯邦利率

2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

$27,515 交易量

2026-12-30
Polymarket

$27,515 交易量

Polymarket

低於4.50%

$1,660 交易量

59%

低於4.45%

$3,321 交易量

52%

低於4.40%

$1,895 交易量

43%

低於4.35%

$3,247 交易量

35%

低於4.30%

$2,827 交易量

26%

低於4.25%

$931 交易量

19%

低於4.20%

$4,754 交易量

14%

低於4.10%

$7,163 交易量

7%

低於4.00%

$1,716 交易量

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.83% as of September 21, 2026, has climbed roughly 110 basis points over the past year amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The September FOMC meeting delivered a 25 basis point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, with futures markets now pricing additional tightening through mid-2027 on sticky core inflation (July PCE near 3.3%) and resilient growth. Elevated real yields and term premium reflect fiscal supply pressures, persistent services inflation, and geopolitical energy risks, while breakeven inflation expectations have eased modestly. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC decision, September employment and PCE data, and Treasury auctions, which will shape medium-term rate path expectations and potential downside moves in the 5-year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$27,515
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.83% as of September 21, 2026, has climbed roughly 110 basis points over the past year amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The September FOMC meeting delivered a 25 basis point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, with futures markets now pricing additional tightening through mid-2027 on sticky core inflation (July PCE near 3.3%) and resilient growth. Elevated real yields and term premium reflect fiscal supply pressures, persistent services inflation, and geopolitical energy risks, while breakeven inflation expectations have eased modestly. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC decision, September employment and PCE data, and Treasury auctions, which will shape medium-term rate path expectations and potential downside moves in the 5-year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$27,515
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "低於4.50%" at 59%, followed by "低於4.45%" at 52%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" has generated $27.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is "低於4.50%" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "低於4.45%" at 52%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.