Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,924,537 交易量
2026-12-08
九月會議
54%
十月會議
66%
$2,924,537 交易量
九月會議
$1,336,362 交易量
54%
十月會議
$628,176 交易量
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$2,924,537結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,924,537結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions