Recent August 2026 CPI data showed Mexico's headline inflation ticking up modestly to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased to 3.88%, remaining above Banxico's 3% target. This trajectory, combined with the central bank's decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50% since June amid sticky services prices and subdued demand pressures, underpins market-implied odds favoring the 4.00-4.49% bin for full-year 2026 inflation at 35%. Traders appear to price in a gradual convergence path toward the target by mid-2027, tempered by risks from food volatility, potential peso weakness, and external shocks, with upcoming monthly releases and any Banxico communications likely to influence near-term adjustments in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.00% to 4.49% 35%
3.50% to 3.99% 28.2%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$66,945 Обс.
$66,945 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
18%
4.00% to 4.49%
35%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
2%
4.00% to 4.49% 35%
3.50% to 3.99% 28.2%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$66,945 Обс.
$66,945 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,113 Обс.
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Обс.
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
$29,055 Обс.
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,210 Обс.
18%
4.00% to 4.49%
$13,846 Обс.
35%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,932 Обс.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,577 Обс.
4%
5.50%+
$6,318 Обс.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent August 2026 CPI data showed Mexico's headline inflation ticking up modestly to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased to 3.88%, remaining above Banxico's 3% target. This trajectory, combined with the central bank's decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50% since June amid sticky services prices and subdued demand pressures, underpins market-implied odds favoring the 4.00-4.49% bin for full-year 2026 inflation at 35%. Traders appear to price in a gradual convergence path toward the target by mid-2027, tempered by risks from food volatility, potential peso weakness, and external shocks, with upcoming monthly releases and any Banxico communications likely to influence near-term adjustments in these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Ринок відкрито: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$66,945Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent August 2026 CPI data showed Mexico's headline inflation ticking up modestly to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased to 3.88%, remaining above Banxico's 3% target. This trajectory, combined with the central bank's decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50% since June amid sticky services prices and subdued demand pressures, underpins market-implied odds favoring the 4.00-4.49% bin for full-year 2026 inflation at 35%. Traders appear to price in a gradual convergence path toward the target by mid-2027, tempered by risks from food volatility, potential peso weakness, and external shocks, with upcoming monthly releases and any Banxico communications likely to influence near-term adjustments in these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Обсяг
$66,945Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent August 2026 CPI data showed Mexico's headline inflation ticking up modestly to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased to 3.88%, remaining above Banxico's 3% target. This trajectory, combined with the central bank's decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50% since June amid sticky services prices and subdued demand pressures, underpins market-implied odds favoring the 4.00-4.49% bin for full-year 2026 inflation at 35%. Traders appear to price in a gradual convergence path toward the target by mid-2027, tempered by risks from food volatility, potential peso weakness, and external shocks, with upcoming monthly releases and any Banxico communications likely to influence near-term adjustments in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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