Hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 85-98%. The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since early 2026, amid persistent headline inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and elevated energy prices. Traders are pricing policy tightening despite a Bloomberg economist survey showing most expect a hold through year-end, reflecting the gap between futures markets and forecaster views. The upcoming decision, accompanied by updated economic projections, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could shift rate path expectations and Treasury yields.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$3,219,182 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
80%
October Meeting
82%
$3,219,182 Обс.
September Meeting
$1,548,560 Обс.
80%
October Meeting
$710,622 Обс.
82%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 85-98%. The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since early 2026, amid persistent headline inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and elevated energy prices. Traders are pricing policy tightening despite a Bloomberg economist survey showing most expect a hold through year-end, reflecting the gap between futures markets and forecaster views. The upcoming decision, accompanied by updated economic projections, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could shift rate path expectations and Treasury yields.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,219,182Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 85-98%. The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since early 2026, amid persistent headline inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and elevated energy prices. Traders are pricing policy tightening despite a Bloomberg economist survey showing most expect a hold through year-end, reflecting the gap between futures markets and forecaster views. The upcoming decision, accompanied by updated economic projections, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could shift rate path expectations and Treasury yields.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,219,182Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 85-98%. The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since early 2026, amid persistent headline inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and elevated energy prices. Traders are pricing policy tightening despite a Bloomberg economist survey showing most expect a hold through year-end, reflecting the gap between futures markets and forecaster views. The upcoming decision, accompanied by updated economic projections, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could shift rate path expectations and Treasury yields.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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