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Економ·Тарифи Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$9,048 Обс.

Polymarket

Below 4.50%

$56 Обс.

84%

Below 4.45%

$0 Обс.

75%

Below 4.40%

$504 Обс.

69%

Below 4.35%

$853 Обс.

61%

Below 4.30%

$0 Обс.

51%

Below 4.25%

$0 Обс.

43%

Below 4.20%

$522 Обс.

37%

Below 4.10%

$5,873 Обс.

24%

Below 4.00%

$1,240 Обс.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$9,048
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$9,048
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Below 4.50%» з 84%, далі «Below 4.45%» з 75%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 2, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — «Below 4.50%» з 84%. Наступний — «Below 4.45%» з 75%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.