Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
$18,802 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.76%
52%
Below 4.73%
32%
Below 4.70%
13%
Below 4.67%
23%
Below 4.64%
9%
Below 4.61%
5%
Below 4.56%
4%
Below 4.51%
5%
Below 4.45%
3%
$18,802 Обс.
Below 4.76%
$7,555 Обс.
52%
Below 4.73%
$1,122 Обс.
32%
Below 4.70%
$3,121 Обс.
13%
Below 4.67%
$194 Обс.
23%
Below 4.64%
$1,635 Обс.
9%
Below 4.61%
$2,027 Обс.
5%
Below 4.56%
$763 Обс.
4%
Below 4.51%
$436 Обс.
5%
Below 4.45%
$1,950 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,802Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$18,802Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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