Recent inflation data and hawkish communications from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 88% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core up 0.3%, keeping headline inflation well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and supply-side factors. June FOMC projections lifted the median end-2026 rate to 3.8%, while Warsh has stressed decisive action to restore price stability. Short-term futures now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the imminent September meeting, with further tightening possible in December. Traders view these factors as outweighing labor-market moderation, though incoming data releases and geopolitical developments on energy remain key swing variables through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПідвищення ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Підвищення ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Так
88% шанс
$9,193,764 Обс.
$9,193,764 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
Так
88% шанс
$9,193,764 Обс.
$9,193,764 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and hawkish communications from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 88% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core up 0.3%, keeping headline inflation well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and supply-side factors. June FOMC projections lifted the median end-2026 rate to 3.8%, while Warsh has stressed decisive action to restore price stability. Short-term futures now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the imminent September meeting, with further tightening possible in December. Traders view these factors as outweighing labor-market moderation, though incoming data releases and geopolitical developments on energy remain key swing variables through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,193,764Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and hawkish communications from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 88% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core up 0.3%, keeping headline inflation well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and supply-side factors. June FOMC projections lifted the median end-2026 rate to 3.8%, while Warsh has stressed decisive action to restore price stability. Short-term futures now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the imminent September meeting, with further tightening possible in December. Traders view these factors as outweighing labor-market moderation, though incoming data releases and geopolitical developments on energy remain key swing variables through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$9,197,784Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and hawkish communications from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 88% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core up 0.3%, keeping headline inflation well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and supply-side factors. June FOMC projections lifted the median end-2026 rate to 3.8%, while Warsh has stressed decisive action to restore price stability. Short-term futures now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the imminent September meeting, with further tightening possible in December. Traders view these factors as outweighing labor-market moderation, though incoming data releases and geopolitical developments on energy remain key swing variables through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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