Recent labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike priced in. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI registered a 3.4% year-over-year increase, keeping the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% under scrutiny. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and mixed signals from other governors have lifted hike odds modestly since mid-August, yet economist polls continue to favor steady policy absent hotter inflation prints. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,419,070 Обс.
$1,419,070 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,419,070 Обс.
$1,419,070 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$236,585 Обс.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$545,389 Обс.
4%
No change
$224,787 Обс.
68%
25 bps increase
$254,448 Обс.
31%
50+ bps increase
$157,861 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike priced in. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI registered a 3.4% year-over-year increase, keeping the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% under scrutiny. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and mixed signals from other governors have lifted hike odds modestly since mid-August, yet economist polls continue to favor steady policy absent hotter inflation prints. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,419,070Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike priced in. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI registered a 3.4% year-over-year increase, keeping the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% under scrutiny. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and mixed signals from other governors have lifted hike odds modestly since mid-August, yet economist polls continue to favor steady policy absent hotter inflation prints. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$1,419,070Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike priced in. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI registered a 3.4% year-over-year increase, keeping the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% under scrutiny. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and mixed signals from other governors have lifted hike odds modestly since mid-August, yet economist polls continue to favor steady policy absent hotter inflation prints. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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