Recent economist forecasts and Bloomberg median estimates center on a 0.2% or 0.23% month-over-month rise in August 2026 core CPI, aligning with July’s 0.2% print and supporting the dominant 80% market-implied probability on that outcome. Soft August core PPI at 0.2% against 0.3% expectations, combined with moderating shelter costs and limited goods-price momentum from used-vehicle deflation, has reinforced trader expectations for contained underlying inflation. The September 11 release, the final major data point before the FOMC meeting, embeds these dynamics into current odds while leaving modest room for 0.1% or 0.3% deviations based on rounding and services composition.