Skip to main content

Щоб торгувати в США, перейдіть на polymarket.us

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Обс.

Polymarket

5.25%

$0 Обс.

17%

5.10%

$0 Обс.

23%

5.00%

$0 Обс.

32%

4.95%

$0 Обс.

41%

4.90%

$0 Обс.

43%

4.85%

$0 Обс.

52%

4.80%

$0 Обс.

56%

4.75%

$0 Обс.

65%

4.70%

$0 Обс.

71%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

icon for Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?

84%
icon for Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.46% in September?

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.46% in September?

46%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

72%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «4.70%» з 71%, далі «4.75%» з 65%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 2, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — «4.70%» з 71%. Наступний — «4.75%» з 65%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.