U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing over $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession scenario—with unemployment at 10%, sharp real estate declines, and equity drops—while aggregate CET1 ratios fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above regulatory minimums. High regulatory capital near historic peaks, improved liquidity, and post-2023 reforms have reinforced resilience, prompting several banks to announce dividend hikes and buybacks. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated loss-absorbing capacity. However, an unexpectedly severe downturn, accelerated commercial real estate deterioration beyond modeled stresses, or systemic liquidity shocks could still test these buffers and shift probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
7% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing over $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession scenario—with unemployment at 10%, sharp real estate declines, and equity drops—while aggregate CET1 ratios fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above regulatory minimums. High regulatory capital near historic peaks, improved liquidity, and post-2023 reforms have reinforced resilience, prompting several banks to announce dividend hikes and buybacks. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated loss-absorbing capacity. However, an unexpectedly severe downturn, accelerated commercial real estate deterioration beyond modeled stresses, or systemic liquidity shocks could still test these buffers and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,183Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing over $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession scenario—with unemployment at 10%, sharp real estate declines, and equity drops—while aggregate CET1 ratios fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above regulatory minimums. High regulatory capital near historic peaks, improved liquidity, and post-2023 reforms have reinforced resilience, prompting several banks to announce dividend hikes and buybacks. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated loss-absorbing capacity. However, an unexpectedly severe downturn, accelerated commercial real estate deterioration beyond modeled stresses, or systemic liquidity shocks could still test these buffers and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Обсяг
$4,183Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing over $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession scenario—with unemployment at 10%, sharp real estate declines, and equity drops—while aggregate CET1 ratios fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above regulatory minimums. High regulatory capital near historic peaks, improved liquidity, and post-2023 reforms have reinforced resilience, prompting several banks to announce dividend hikes and buybacks. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated loss-absorbing capacity. However, an unexpectedly severe downturn, accelerated commercial real estate deterioration beyond modeled stresses, or systemic liquidity shocks could still test these buffers and shift probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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