Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$250,469 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
3.9%
9%
3.8%
8%
3.7%
5%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
5%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$250,469 Обс.
3.9%
$50,070 Обс.
9%
3.8%
$52,865 Обс.
8%
3.7%
$28,035 Обс.
5%
3.6%
$6,185 Обс.
5%
3.5%
$39,256 Обс.
5%
3.0%
$1,162 Обс.
3%
2.0%
$564 Обс.
2%
1.0%
$40,572 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$250,469Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$250,469Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання