**Persistent above-target inflation amid a resilient labor market is the main force behind the near-even split in December FOMC odds.** With headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside August payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, traders see limited room for easing yet debate whether conditions warrant a 25 basis point hike. Recent hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and upward revisions in the June SEP—pushing the median year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%—have lifted the implied probability of tightening, while forecasts for cooling supply-driven price pressures support the hold case. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases will likely clarify the path, leaving December pricing sensitive to incoming data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Обс.
$569,204 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Обс.
$569,204 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,690 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,402 Обс.
6%
No change
$101,819 Обс.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,606 Обс.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Обс.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent above-target inflation amid a resilient labor market is the main force behind the near-even split in December FOMC odds.** With headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside August payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, traders see limited room for easing yet debate whether conditions warrant a 25 basis point hike. Recent hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and upward revisions in the June SEP—pushing the median year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%—have lifted the implied probability of tightening, while forecasts for cooling supply-driven price pressures support the hold case. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases will likely clarify the path, leaving December pricing sensitive to incoming data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$569,204Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent above-target inflation amid a resilient labor market is the main force behind the near-even split in December FOMC odds.** With headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside August payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, traders see limited room for easing yet debate whether conditions warrant a 25 basis point hike. Recent hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and upward revisions in the June SEP—pushing the median year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%—have lifted the implied probability of tightening, while forecasts for cooling supply-driven price pressures support the hold case. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases will likely clarify the path, leaving December pricing sensitive to incoming data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$569,204Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation amid a resilient labor market is the main force behind the near-even split in December FOMC odds.** With headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside August payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, traders see limited room for easing yet debate whether conditions warrant a 25 basis point hike. Recent hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and upward revisions in the June SEP—pushing the median year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%—have lifted the implied probability of tightening, while forecasts for cooling supply-driven price pressures support the hold case. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases will likely clarify the path, leaving December pricing sensitive to incoming data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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