Recent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year—the highest in three years—combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning to the 2% target have shifted the policy outlook hawkishly since the June FOMC. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through July, trader focus centers on the September 16 meeting and its accompanying dot plot, where roughly half of economists now see at least one 2026 hike versus prior pause consensus. This creates tight competition between an unchanged path through September and scenarios involving a September tightening, as incoming labor and price data plus revised SEP projections remain the decisive swing factors ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 Обс.
$842,754 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 Обс.
$842,754 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,527 Обс.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 Обс.
1%
Other
$359,857 Обс.
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year—the highest in three years—combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning to the 2% target have shifted the policy outlook hawkishly since the June FOMC. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through July, trader focus centers on the September 16 meeting and its accompanying dot plot, where roughly half of economists now see at least one 2026 hike versus prior pause consensus. This creates tight competition between an unchanged path through September and scenarios involving a September tightening, as incoming labor and price data plus revised SEP projections remain the decisive swing factors ahead of resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$842,754Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year—the highest in three years—combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning to the 2% target have shifted the policy outlook hawkishly since the June FOMC. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through July, trader focus centers on the September 16 meeting and its accompanying dot plot, where roughly half of economists now see at least one 2026 hike versus prior pause consensus. This creates tight competition between an unchanged path through September and scenarios involving a September tightening, as incoming labor and price data plus revised SEP projections remain the decisive swing factors ahead of resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$842,754Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year—the highest in three years—combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning to the 2% target have shifted the policy outlook hawkishly since the June FOMC. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through July, trader focus centers on the September 16 meeting and its accompanying dot plot, where roughly half of economists now see at least one 2026 hike versus prior pause consensus. This creates tight competition between an unchanged path through September and scenarios involving a September tightening, as incoming labor and price data plus revised SEP projections remain the decisive swing factors ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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