Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$15,079 Обс.
$15,079 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$15,079 Обс.
$15,079 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 Обс.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$569 Обс.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 Обс.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 Обс.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$618 Обс.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,754 Обс.
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$364 Обс.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$446 Обс.
8%
Other
$294 Обс.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,079Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$15,079Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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