Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated between roughly $70 billion and $89 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion on rising imports tied to AI-related capital spending and a dip in exports. Strong domestic growth, a firm dollar, and evolving tariff policies under the current administration are key swing factors that could compress or expand the full-year gap. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges because the net effect of higher energy exports, potential further import substitution, and any slowdown in tech-driven imports is still uncertain ahead of additional data releases through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,106 Объем
$24,106 Объем
27 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
4%
500–600 млрд
6%
600–700 млрд
10%
700–800 млрд
41%
800–900 млрд
31%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
14%
1–1,1 трлн
6%
1,1 трлн+
5%
$24,106 Объем
$24,106 Объем
27 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,854 Объем
4%
500–600 млрд
$454 Объем
6%
600–700 млрд
$543 Объем
10%
700–800 млрд
$670 Объем
41%
800–900 млрд
$1,529 Объем
31%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$1,469 Объем
14%
1–1,1 трлн
$1,468 Объем
6%
1,1 трлн+
$1,119 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated between roughly $70 billion and $89 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion on rising imports tied to AI-related capital spending and a dip in exports. Strong domestic growth, a firm dollar, and evolving tariff policies under the current administration are key swing factors that could compress or expand the full-year gap. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges because the net effect of higher energy exports, potential further import substitution, and any slowdown in tech-driven imports is still uncertain ahead of additional data releases through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$24,106Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated between roughly $70 billion and $89 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion on rising imports tied to AI-related capital spending and a dip in exports. Strong domestic growth, a firm dollar, and evolving tariff policies under the current administration are key swing factors that could compress or expand the full-year gap. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges because the net effect of higher energy exports, potential further import substitution, and any slowdown in tech-driven imports is still uncertain ahead of additional data releases through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$24,106Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated between roughly $70 billion and $89 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion on rising imports tied to AI-related capital spending and a dip in exports. Strong domestic growth, a firm dollar, and evolving tariff policies under the current administration are key swing factors that could compress or expand the full-year gap. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges because the net effect of higher energy exports, potential further import substitution, and any slowdown in tech-driven imports is still uncertain ahead of additional data releases through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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