Recent August CPI data held steady at 3.4% year-over-year, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to 3.43% for September amid a 0.4% monthly gain driven largely by energy. Gasoline prices surged nearly 4% in August and over 27% from a year earlier due to supply shocks and Middle East tensions, while core measures eased modestly to around 2.4%. Rising consumer inflation expectations—to 4.6% over the next year per the University of Michigan survey—reflect these pressures plus trade concerns, supporting market-implied odds clustered tightly around 3.5-3.6%. Forecasters project full-year 2026 CPI near 3.5%, though volatility in fuel and shelter components creates room for modest upside or downside surprises ahead of the mid-October release.