Recent moderation in U.S. core inflation, with the August 2026 reading printing at 2.4% year-over-year—matching consensus and marking the lowest level since March 2021—has positioned the 2.4% outcome as the market favorite for the September print. The Cleveland Fed nowcast for September stands near 2.39%, reflecting continued cooling in core goods and commodities alongside sticky shelter costs near 3.0%. Traders weigh this disinflationary trend against the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% range and signals of another possible increase, driven by elevated services inflation and geopolitical energy pressures. The September CPI release, expected around mid-October, remains the key near-term catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2,4% 47%
2,5% 24%
2,3% 18%
2,6% 9%
≤2,0%
3%
2,1%
2%
2,2%
3%
2,3%
18%
2,4%
47%
2,5%
24%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
5%
2,8%
6%
≥2,9%
3%
2,4% 47%
2,5% 24%
2,3% 18%
2,6% 9%
≤2,0%
3%
2,1%
2%
2,2%
3%
2,3%
18%
2,4%
47%
2,5%
24%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
5%
2,8%
6%
≥2,9%
3%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in U.S. core inflation, with the August 2026 reading printing at 2.4% year-over-year—matching consensus and marking the lowest level since March 2021—has positioned the 2.4% outcome as the market favorite for the September print. The Cleveland Fed nowcast for September stands near 2.39%, reflecting continued cooling in core goods and commodities alongside sticky shelter costs near 3.0%. Traders weigh this disinflationary trend against the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% range and signals of another possible increase, driven by elevated services inflation and geopolitical energy pressures. The September CPI release, expected around mid-October, remains the key near-term catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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