The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<4,5 млн 26%
5,5М-6М 23%
4,5М–5М 22%
6М-6,5М 19%
<4,5 млн
26%
4,5М–5М
22%
5М–5,5М
17%
5,5М-6М
23%
6М-6,5М
19%
6,5М–7М
18%
7 млн+
8%
<4,5 млн 26%
5,5М-6М 23%
4,5М–5М 22%
6М-6,5М 19%
<4,5 млн
26%
4,5М–5М
22%
5М–5,5М
17%
5,5М-6М
23%
6М-6,5М
19%
6,5М–7М
18%
7 млн+
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах губернатора Коннектикута в 2026 году, находиться в диапазоне от 1 300 000 до 1 400 000?
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах губернатора Пенсильвании в середине срока 2026 года, находиться в диапазоне от 5 000 000 до 5 500 000?
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах губернатора Калифорнии в промежуточных выборах 2026 года, находиться в диапазоне от 10 500 000 до 11 000 000?
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